Thursday 8 September 2011

Prediction

Seeing even more changes in FFXIV, I believe FFXIV won't die. It will slowly turning into FFXI+1/JP style WoW -1 and live on.

They will slowly add more contents, following old and successful MMORPG formulas. Instance raids, ex/rare gears. More ex/rare gears, lv cap increase, new jobs and AF, and MOAR instance raids + ex/rare gears from events. That's how FFXI/WoW worked for years, no?

They will add enough epic ex/rare gears for players to grind(enough game content to charge a monthly fee I mean). Then they will start to charge monthly fee.

Those who already been playing FFXIV for ages won't leave after they start charging. Since they already made progress and gained advantage in game. They will be the core players that made FFXIV keep running.

FFXIV won't surpass WoW I believe, it will only become JRPG style WoW -1. I've know SE for years and what kind of company they are. They no longer come up with anything ground breaking, since they have no ambition. But FFXIV can still attract new players. There are not a lot of JP companies making large scale MMORPGs, FFXIV literally has no competition. Those who liked JRPG and MMOs will come to FFXIV.

Will, technically PSO2 and DQ10 is coming, but those are very different. PSO series has been a diablo style game, it probably won't change in PSO2. And I doubt DQ10, a Wii only online game will be something like WoW/FF11. It will probably just be online version of DQ9. Also none-JP players usually like FF series more than DQ, so FFXIV will still be No.1 choice for none-JP JRPG lovers that wants to play MMORPG.

Unless FFXI release a new full expansion(not just add-ons), FFXIV may ended up having a little larger player base than FFXI, since FFXI now has nothing new. Abyssea release one year go somehow revived the game with entirely new game rules on old map. With super high dmg output/HP and easily obtainable epic weapons. But it won't last forever, ppl eventually will grow tire of it and immune to any more new stuff that's not ground breaking enough. FFXI need to release something even more ground breaking to attract ppl's attention now.

Will WoW/FFXI formula become successful for new MMORPGs nowadays? No. Video games has becoming more and more causal friendly+easier iin past 10~20 years. Just look at the difficulties of video games 10~20 years ago, the look at games(especially facebook games)today. Games that requires 5~8hrs of playtime a day will just change slowly. WoW/FFXI both changed and more causal friendly now.

FFXIV probably won't be free2play like SW galaxies and LOTR online. Once again I've known SE for years, and what kind of company they are XD. Plus FFXIV still has it's market since other JP companies don't really make MMORPG.

IMO now it's a pretty good time to join FFXIV if you intend to play a JP MMORPG for a very long time and refuse to touch other more promising MMORPGs. Since FFXIV is free now and you can grind a couple of jobs to R50 while it's free, then get into endgame madness after they add even more epic gears and start charging. Although haters will hate, but I still believe SW:TOR and GW2 will be more successful than FFXIV in NA, both games are way more ambitious than FFXIV. Not sure about Asia, Asian players usually not interested in western style MMORPGs besides WoW, but there are also large amount of competition in Asia....Chinese and Korean companies make MMOs, they make a fuck tone.

Still, I have to admit that FFXIV still don't get my attention THAT much. I'm already seeing how this game will become, and kinda don't want to play another game that's not much different from FFXI time sink.

Still would rather to play PSO2/SW:TOR/GW2 really ;<

OO and I forgot about Diablo 3, but I hate Diablo 2, would rather play PSO2 if I want to play Diablo style game ;<

6 comments:

  1. "FFXIV won't surpass WoW I believe"

    Anyone that even suggests that is a moron. A total and utter moron.

    ReplyDelete
  2. @Dibble There's no way FFXIV will achieve 12million+ active subscriptions.

    Surpass WoW in terms of fun? Maybe, but that's subjective and can't be accurately measured so no one gives a shit.

    Surpass WoW in peak active subscriptions? No.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Fun is pretty subjective, but I value a MMORPG that's successful or not by whether it can create new value or not(and sale counts too)

    So you think FFXIV will beat WoW? With a core game mechanic that's designed 5~8 years ago?(And obviously not working well nowadays)

    WoW player base is decreasing over all those years, forcing BZ to make the game more and more causal friendly. Obviously that kind of game mechanic established 5 years ago no longer worked(and FFXIV still using it). In fact all the MMORPG market is decreasing, and start to favor more causal social games or free2play MMORPGs.

    If FFXIV follow WoW's path, it wont be as successful. Too many MMORPG that followed, but never surpass. If they followed, it *may* be more successful, but not 100%. Too many MMORPG that didn't followed and intend to create a new game mechanic, and died very fast.

    Which newer FF games created by SE nowadays actually surpassed FFVII and VIII in terms of sells? None. Each year every newer FF title sells less and less, gaming market is no longer the same as before.

    The golden era of WoW is over. I personally don't think SW:Tor and GW2 can beat WoW too, but they have way more chance than FFXIV, just because the way developer wanted to create something worthwhile in the gaming history.(IMO spending that much amount of money on SW:Tor is crazy....too hard to make it back with MMORPG market nowaday) While SE already mentioned they have no intention to compete with WoW. They know they don't have the resource to do it.

    I'm NOT a WoW fan, I have no reason to defend for it, nor glorify it. Just the way it goes nowadays, it's very hard for any newer MMORPGs to surpass it. It is a legend in this field. Just like I don't see how any newer JRPG can surpass FFVII and VIII in terms of sells as well, by looking at how the gaming market today.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Also you don't have to /rage right away, I actually predicted FFXIV won't die after everything's fixed, and won't go to free2play. It's actually fairly positive review for a MMORPG got such bad reputation when it launched. (Look at how many ppl giving even more negative view)

    It just won't be anything worth marking in the gaming industry that's all, besides the graphic. As long as it walked the path of Wow, it will be overshadowed by it forever. Its just one out of one million MMORPG that's created every year, and the only unique side of it is it's JP style.

    If you ever bother to learn more about Korea/China, they make MMORPGs, hundreds and hundreds of them every year. They're like MMORPG generate machine. And Korean MMORPGs are fairly ambitious. FFXIV doesn't really stand out among all those free2play/charged MMORPGs, besides good graphic, JP style and FFness.

    ReplyDelete
  5. SE doesn't even have enough resource to fix FFXI ;<

    Using proc to specialize a job's role in pt is extremely lazy.

    Most of the EG events lacks variety. There are really only Dyna/limbus/Salvage/Nyzul/Einherjar/WoE are real dungeons/EG area.

    Abyssea is just old areas with new rules. It is new at first, but soon ppl will get tired, and same trick won't work twice.

    Every update the amount of resource SE put in is just not a lot. That's why they keep redoing old EG content. They don't have the resource to make any more new stuff for this game anymore. So the best way is to make more ex/rare gears to make ppl stay.

    New expansion where? New continent where? New storyline where?

    Hell, even adding 100 more dungeons will make me happy. But currently FFXI does't even have 50 dungeons, let alone adding another 100.

    Let me repeat again. Making a great MMORPG requires way too much resources. Too many game reviewers actually looked down on SW:Tor because it's hard to make all the money back on a such expensive game. SE had been suffering from financial problem, no way they will have as much resource as BZ. It won't surpass WoW, SE doesn't have the resource to.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Unless SE can come up with something new, that's cheap to do but effective. But they haven't come up with anything new for years, I doubt they can now. w

    ReplyDelete

Note: only a member of this blog may post a comment.