Will FFXI shut down in 2014?

I keep hearing FFXI doomsday talk recently, some say it has 1 more year left, some say 2. As if FFXI will shut down soon.

I can't say much about 3~5 years later, but from what I've seen now, it's quite unlikely that it will shut down in 2014. I'd say a good 95% of chance it won't shut down in 2014, 5% of chance for "never say never".

There's a couple of reason that lead to such conclusion.

1. It's Final Fantasy, and it's SE.

It's a FF title that means the IP is owned by SE. Quite a lot of titles shut down in the past, such as WAR and SWG, had license expiration issue. AFAIK WAR shutting down is due to license agreement, on top of low population. Dark Age of Camelot by same company still exist now.

If the IP is owned by SE, they can run it as long as they want. Hell if they want they can keep the game going even with 5k sub left.

The next question is, WILL SE keep running even if there's 1 server left(Not that I think FFXI will have 1 server left in 2014 unless SE do something silly anyways, need a few more years for FFXI to reach 1 server left status IMO).

We're dealing with SE, and the way they deal with FF franchise is something you can't predict using Asian/western MMO company logic. When FFXIV 1.0 turned into fail launch, every media predicted it's going to shut down or enter F2P mode, using Asian/Western MMO company logic. Asian/Western MMO logic= server shut down when it's no longer profitable, F2P or bust. But SE didn't do that, instead they remade entire game, for 1 single reason: It's FF, they can't lot FF rot.

Another smaller Asian MMO company that I have connection with, one of their policy is they will always update and keep running their titles no matter how small their player base becomes. And they launch 1~2 titles every year. There's a reason behind that though, shutting down a MMO is bad record in the industry, if a company shut down 1 title every 3 years, players would be less willing to spend money in cash shop in future titles.

Keeping a title alive is not as expensive as everyone thinks, if small Asian companies can do it, SE certainly can, especially for games like FFXI, few new re-skinned NMs every year. It's not like they need to pay the license fee for IP.

It's ass easy to keep the game running, and SE may release more MMO titles in the future. I see it more harm than good if they choose to shut down in 2014. I mean, EQ is older and has same core mechanic as FFXI, and it's still alive with 20th expansion released 1 month ago. At one point of time FFXI had more sub than EQ. If FFXI shut down before EQ, what a shame to SE!

2. Force grouping/Community based MMO still has it's market

Majority of none hardcore MMO player may think WoW/WoW clones like FFXIV are better MMO than pre-WoW era titles because it's "easier and you don't log on and do nothing".

But the fact is, titles like EQ and FFXI still has it's market....and a less competitive market. Games like WoW and FFXIV, is mostly about killing stuff, and none stop killing stuff with little to no downtime. Games like EQ and FFXI has plenty of downtime you can't do shit and are force to interact with community. You know, can't progress without friends.

However, if you often lurk on older MMO community, EQ is often praised to death and any new title that looks or plays like WoW will be bashed to death.

https://www.soe.com/status/

This site shows that EQ still has 17 servers, and some of them able to reach medium, nearly 15 years after release. Other titles by SoE has less....idk each game's server capacity though, so it may not be irrelevant to current active players.

It's not because EQ is actually that much better than other WoW clones, but because there are too many wow clones on the market. Casual MMO titles has bigger market and more competition, games that requires stronger community connection like FFXI has smaller market, but less competitor. And there ARE ppl who still doesn't like to log on, click pt queue, DING and enter instance.

I'm one of the player that find "getting ppl to do stuff" is part of challenge, and sometimes frustrating and yet rewarding experience. I often want to cry on my bed, kick myself, bash my head against the wall when I can't find ppl to do stuff and sit in town doing nothing, then I go "Fuck, I need more friends and bigger connection". I go out and be nice to everyone(that I usually don't), find ppl with similar goals, remember their names, and in the end managed to get shit done.

Besides getting shit done, I ended up making connections that still exists after I log off. That is the real reward that stays forever even after I exit to desktop. With an auto pt finder like WoW clone games, I kill shit with random strangers after a few min of wait, then disband pt and log off. After I log off there's nothing left, like every other single player titles, beat the boss, turn off the power and every accomplishment gone. And FFXI is just different from those single player MMOs.

If I just want to log in and kill shit to have fun, there are other titles I can play. But if I want to log on and make meaningful connections, or have a reason to force myself making friends, FFXI is probably my only choice.

And I believe I'm not the only one. Because if I am, it will be EQ that's being bashed to death by MMO community, not WoW clones.

Again, EQ is just as outdated, hardcore and terrible as FFXI with similar game mechanics. But even to this day it's still loved, praised, being played, even though it's older than FFXI.

If EQ still lives, why can't FFXI?

3. F2P, last resort.

If SE really, really, really want, they have their final limit break they can use to save FFXI, that is F2P.

F2P is known to be most effective method to save a title. No question asked.

http://www.gamesradar.com/dc-universe-online-revenue-700-after-f2p-switch/

http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/06/26/dcuo-has-11-million-registered-users-soe-explains-f2p-strategy/

One example is DC universe online instantly gained huge player base increase after going F2P, and revenue up by 700%

What will happen if FFXI go F2P? Noobie zone will full of ppl lving jobs again, you will see mission /shouts again, towns will full of /shouts, and much easier to find ppl to do stuff no matter what you do.

I started EQ and Mortal Online recently just because I have enough of wow clone MMOs, and one main reason I can start new MMO is because both titles are free to try. If I have to pay for an account I won't even bother.

That being said, I'm against pay 2 win. If FFXI ever going F2P it requires serious consideration about HOW to do F2P. Maybe restrictions on free accounts, such as less content access per week.

Or at very least, better free trial. Such as free trial for unlimited time but no access to endgame content and so on. But they can do stories to see how FFXI works.

Either way, I see smartly done F2P can save this game without pissing off old players. As long as SE done right and no pay 2 win, it's really not that bad.


---------------------------------------------------
Personally, I think it's pointless to predict when will XI shut down, cuz ultimately it's SE's decision. They can shut down tomorrow, or they can keep it running for 10 more years IF they really want to. Just reason No.1 and 2 alone is enough to keep FFXI survive past 2014 if SE doesn't enter retard mode IMO.